000 AXNT20 KNHC 270520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 9N30W TO 12N38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 12N57W AT 27/0400 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL SWIRL. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW ROTATION IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N75W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE E OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N68W BUT THERE NO INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COMBINATION IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 66W-77W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE UPPER AIR DATA AND A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION NOW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS ACTUALLY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CLOSER TO 89W. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W TO OVER THE YUCATAN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N30W 8N36W 10N53W 11N61W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N23W 5N30W 6N38W AND FROM 7N-14N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT IN THE GULF IS A WEAK 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 28N92W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTREME S TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. A BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE SW GULF S OF 28N W OF 87W GENERATING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE SAME AREA AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE SE US AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER E TEXAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS N GEORGIA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE SE US WITH A CLUSTER MOVING OFF THE LOUISIANA/E TEXAS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 92W-95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 13N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W AND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 20N FROM 84W-87W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE IS A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 13N75W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N80W AND OVERING THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 75W PUSHING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N58W AND THE 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 23N64W THEN NE TO 29N70W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION EXTENDING A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N36W ALONG 28N43W TO THE 1014 MB SURFACE LOW ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N46W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA E OF 55W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. $$ WALLACE