000 AXNT20 KNHC 191759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 19/1800 UTC THE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT...THIS MAKES DEAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 926 MB. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CORE OF DEAN APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LIKE GILBERT IN 1988 AND WILMA IN 2005. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POWERFUL HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR THE MOST RECENT WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. DEAN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE...RAINBANDS AND OUTFLOW. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. OUTER BANDS OF DEAN ARE MOVING OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 46W IS ADJUSTED AHEAD BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE DATA AND SSMI-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 20N49W 15N52W 8N54W. A 101O MB SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N53W. CU LINES DEFINE THE EXPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE LOW. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN MON. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS BEING MASKED HOWEVER BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N25W 12N38W 14N48W 7N56W. BESIDES THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-22O NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W-32W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 40W-46W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS A MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. AS COMPUTER MODELS PREDICTED...THIS LOW HAS BEEN MOVING WWD AHEAD OF HURRICANE DEAN...AND THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS MAJOR HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE FEW DAYS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SE U.S.. THE LOW IS GENERATING SCATTRED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN GULF PRODUCING NLY FLOW W OF 94W. AT THE SURFACE... WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA. THUS SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING FROM THE E AND SE AT 10-15 KT. ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE DEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE...AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF AFTERWARD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DEAN. DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES...25-75 MM...AND GUSTY WIND OF 40 KT IN PUNTA CANA WITH THE OUTER BAND OF DEAN...AS WELL AS HIGH AND BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. GUATANAMO IN CUBA IS NOW REPORTING VICINITY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 33 KT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST ASSOCIATED ALSO WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF DEAN. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM DEAN IS NOW NOTED E OF 80W. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES E OF 60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 70W THAT IS PUSHING S AND WILL EFFECT THE FUTURE TRACK OF DEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W MOVING W. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N70W. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING WEST FROM AFRICA COVERS THE ERN ATLANTIC. $$ GR