000 AXNT20 KNHC 161247 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 846 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. AMENDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE ONLY THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANE DEAN AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN AT 16/1200 UTC WAS NEAR 28.0N 97.2W...NEAR LAMAR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 22 NM/40 KM NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE 30 KT/55 KM PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 27N INLAND TO 31N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN AT 16/1200 UTC WAS NEAR 13.5N 53.3W OR ABOUT 360 NM/665 KM EAST OF BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 445 NM/820 KM EAST OF MARTINIQUE. HURRICANE DEAN WAS MOVING WEST 21 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE NEAR 70 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW HAS DISSIPATED. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SLIGHTLY TILTED CURVATURE REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 34W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 64W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 63W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N25W 7N41W 12N49W THEN ALONG 12N56W 10N61W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 20W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-38W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FOCUS AGAIN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM ERIN APPROACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS E ERIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SSE TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N W OF 84W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.... AND S MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AND IS DIGGING ACROSS FLORIDA PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE W FLORIDA COAST FROM FORT MYERS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 78W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER CUBA TO HAITI GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ALTHOUGH THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...S PANAMA...AND W COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION IT IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA TO 12N IN NICARAGUA. FOR THE MOST PART...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W ACROSS FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N73W. A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N68W TO NEAR 26N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 67W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN UPPER FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HURRICANE DEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N44W GIVING THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ MT