000 AXNT20 KNHC 161034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 96.7W AT 16/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 48 NM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS OR 156 NM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 FOR MORE DETAILS. ERIN HAS NOT STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND THE CENTER IS APPEARS TO WOBBLE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN INLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN TAPPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 27N W OF 94W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 93W. TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 16/0900 UTC. HURRICANE DEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 52.3W AT 16/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 FOR MORE DETAILS. DEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AFTER ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW HAS DISSIPATED. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SLIGHTLY TILTED CURVATURE REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 34W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 64W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 63W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N25W 7N41W 12N49W THEN ALONG 12N56W 10N61W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 20W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-38W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FOCUS AGAIN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM ERIN APPROACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS E ERIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SSE TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N W OF 84W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.... AND S MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AND IS DIGGING ACROSS FLORIDA PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE W FLORIDA COAST FROM FORT MYERS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 78W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER CUBA TO HAITI GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ALTHOUGH THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...S PANAMA...AND W COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION IT IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA TO 12N IN NICARAGUA. FOR THE MOST PART...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W ACROSS FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N73W. A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N68W TO NEAR 26N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 67W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN UPPER FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HURRICANE DEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N44W GIVING THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE