000 AXNT20 KNHC 140514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 35.0W AT 14/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 34W-40W. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER BRISKLY IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N87W...OR ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE W LEAVING THE LOW CENTER BEHIND. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE GULF...S OF 27N E OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. INTERESTS IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. THIS WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1006 MB LOW IN THE SPACIAL FEATURES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE W AND LEAVING THE LOW BEHIND. THE WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 26N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE ABOVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N24W 13N32W 10N38W 10N45W 9N50W 8N60W. SEE SPACIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N FROM 22W-27W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPACIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W GULF NEAR 26N93W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF S OF 27N. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS GIVING MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 78W. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC LAST NIGHT IS BECOMING A CUT-OFF ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO SW TO NEAR 13N75W. FOR THE MOST PART...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE N COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N78W TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIPS S OF THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 32N70W TO 28N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W NE TO BEYOND 32N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ENE TO 30N60W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH/LOW WITH MODERATELY DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N32W. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC E OF 60W FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE