000 AXNT20 KNHC 120010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N20W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 20W-24W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. A CARIBBEAN HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 69W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N79W. DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW... AND SURFACE FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE...ARE PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 10N25W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 36W-45W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N91W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 84W-89W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 87W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W MOVING W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N79W. EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS BY FAR THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 63W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS FROM 8N-16N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N79W. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N35W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N55W 27N78W. WINDS FROM 20N-30N ARE ELY 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA