000
AXNT20 KNHC 101801
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W/43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W S OF 25N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE 
CONTINUES TO HAVE A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE S PORTION OF THE 
WAVE MOVING INTO VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 60W-62W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W/73W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 72W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 21N85W TO HONDURAS MOVING W 10 KT. MOST 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MOSTLY ON THE SOUTH END 
OF THE WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 12N25W 10N50W 11N62W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 20O NM S OF THE 
AXIS FROM 13W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 51W-59W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. 
A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N91W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM 
MOBILE AL TO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF WESTERN LOUISIANA.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING INTO THE 
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING 
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF UPPER HIGHS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ONE NEAR 18N82W AND 
ANOTHER 15N65W. FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SE OF THE BAHAMAS 
AND THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER HIGH IS CREATING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND 
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 14N79W. EARLIER CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAVE DECREASED WITH ONLY ISOLATED 
SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-81W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE ATLC OF 
28N W OF 54W. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N FROM 
68W-73W. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 17N W OF 73W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA.  A 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N35W 
TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N43W TO 20N55W. AN 
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC SE OF ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. 
DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC N OF THE ITCZ E OF 40W...WITH
ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS.

$$
DGS