000 AXNT20 KNHC 101044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N23W TO 12N28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 37W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 25N MOVING W 15 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 58W-62W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 60W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE THAT IS BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH MASKING SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WAVE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSCURED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N24W 10N38W 12N60W THEN BECOMING DISTORTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N10W TO 10N20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 49W-60W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE EXTENDING OVER THE GULF N OF 27N AND AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W COVERS THE S GULF S OF 26N E OF 94W. A WEAK SURFACE REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE US GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST MOVING TO WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ALABAMA COAST WITH HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING THE N GULF COAST N OF 27N E OF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR WITH A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N90W. THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W COVERING THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 82W GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. A PAIR OF UPPER HIGHS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N78W AND 15N68W. BENEATH THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH IS THE S PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N80W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-81W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO THE FAR S CARIBBEAN. THUS THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY ACTIVE AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 75W. A BROADENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE AREA FROM OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 31N BETWEEN 66W-75W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM PUERTO RICO TO E CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 27N42W TO 21N55W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE E ATLC E OF 30W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ATLC SO THAT NEITHER FEATURE IS ABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N41W TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W CONTINUING SW TO THE W ATLC NEAR 26N75W. $$ WALLACE