000 AXNT20 KNHC 100518 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 58W-63W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE THAT IS BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH MASKING SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSCURED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 12N24W 10N38W 9N54W 10N58W THEN BECOMING DISTORTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 42W-58W AND FROM 4N-10N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE EXTENDING OVER THE GULF N OF 26N...AN UPPER LOW IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERS THE SE S OF 25N E OF 90W...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE IS INLAND OVER THE SE US GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AS WELL WITH HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N E OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR WITH A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N E OF 84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W COVERING THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W GENERATING SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. A PAIR OF UPPER HIGHS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N76W AND 15N67W. BENEATH THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH IS THE S PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N78W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N ACROSS CUBA AND HAITI BETWEEN 73W-80W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 120 NM OF 65W FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM 73W-82W. THUS THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY ACTIVE TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 73W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N HAITI AND E CUBA FROM 71W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N33W SW TO 25N50W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE E ATLC E OF 30W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ATLC SO THAT NEITHER FEATURE IS ABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE