000 AXNT20 KNHC 090520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 33W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 25N MOVING W 20 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N51W TO 19N56W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE THAT IS BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH MASKING SATELLITE SIGNATURE. BASED ON THE UPPER AIR DATA...THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE LOCATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 12N27W 9N38W 12N52W BECOMING DISTORTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 5.5N FROM 45W-50W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR E TENNESSEE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS GIVING THE E GULF E UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO/TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 19N98W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SE UPPER FLOW DRAWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER DRY STABLE AIR AND A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N92W. THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N67W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO A SECOND SMALL UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W CLIPPING THE N CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N69W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N68W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. THE DRY AIR THAT HAS CONTROLLED THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE ITS HOLD WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 70W AND INT HE GULF OF HONDURAS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION E OF BERMUDA THROUGH A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 30N65W SW TO AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 24N73W THEN W CONTINUING TO THE UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA CLIPPING THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 30N60W TO 24N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W TO NEAR 26N71W GENERATING SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM 67W-74W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THE RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO 31N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N47W SW TO 21N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NE ATLC S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 25W WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE