000 AXNT20 KNHC 071051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 27W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 20N40W TO 6N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. EXACT WAVE POSITION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 71W-75W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION REMAINING OVER SW MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N W OF 98W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER HIGH THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF NEAR 21N98W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N26W 12N38W 11N45W 11N52W 11N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 32W-44W AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 48W-61W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE IS GIVING THE E GULF MOSTLY E UPPER FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER HIGH ENHANCING ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N89W...THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N86W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 23N79W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WHERE A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS N TO OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N E OF 67W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. CONVERGENCE OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA BETWEEN 67W-78W INCLUDING AND JAMAICA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N63W SW TO JUST OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 22N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N67W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N72W TO JUST E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/WISELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 54W-65W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W EXTENDING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A SECOND RIDGE AXIS N TO BEYOND 32N52W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W S TO 23N45W AND IS ENTRAINING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N41W TO 32N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 25N34W. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE