000 AXNT20 KNHC 061757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 24/25W S OF 15N...ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE METSAT-9 HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. ALTHOUGH LITTLE EVIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE DAKAR RAOB DATA...THE FEATURE DID APPEAR TO PASS BAMAKO MALI LATE ON AUG 3. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-28W. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 26N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE INVERTED V SHAPE IN THE SURROUNDING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH THE ITCZ...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 32W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED TODAY FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 45W-50W...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH A MAXIMUM IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS. REGARDLESS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE NOW APPEARS TO BE W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXACT WAVE POSN REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FURTHER E NEAR THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...A WWD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT WHERE THE CURRENT AXIS IS PLACED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW WAS ADDED TO THE AXIS IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N ON THE 1500 UTC MAP. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N W OF 94W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 12N22W 11N30W 10N42W 11N57W 10N62W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-44W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1018 MB SFC HIGH IS S OF NEW ORLEANS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. THIS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW EXITING THE FAR SW PORTION. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS ISOLATED TSTMS ABOUT 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 90W-95W. THIS SEEMS MOST ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT IN THE REGION FROM THE RECENT TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED TSTMS THAT WERE OCCURRING IN THE NRN GULF JUST S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT/SEAS LOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN IS OVER THE SW PORTION/N OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 83W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LIKELY ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE ITCZ. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W THE CARIB IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. UPPER NE FLOW AND DRY AIR ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE NOTED BETWEEN THE COASTS OF JAMAICA AND HONDURAS THOUGH. UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE NE PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W. RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY DUE TO THE DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TROPICAL WAVE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND NORMAL TRADE WIND MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1013 MB SFC LOW IS OVER THE WRN ATLC NEAR 30N73W THAT HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR PALM BEACH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 210 NM AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A MORE RECENT FLARE UP OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-65W...WHICH IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 25N68W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY FEW TO CLEAR BEHIND THE SFC FEATURES TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA WITH UPPER NE FLOW AROUND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE. LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 21N63W IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 57W-63W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N56W WITH ANOTHER LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 26N27W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS IS ALONG 44W. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY GENERATING PATCHES OF CIRRUS N OF 25N BETWEEN 34W-40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SFC PATTERN E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE TRADES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1029 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N34W. NE SFC WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF NW AFRICA WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE. $$ WILLIS