000 AXNT20 KNHC 061024 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS NOW E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXACT WAVE POSITION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OVER S MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH BROAD WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE S GULF AND S MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N FROM 90W-97W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 9N21W 12N33W 10N41W 11N50W 10N58W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N FROM 22W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 31W-51W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GIVING THE E GULF NE TO E UPPER FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N91W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER HIGH ENHANCING ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N86W...THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N65W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N FROM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. CONVERGENCE OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 73W-79W INCLUDING SW HAITI AND JAMAICA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS INLAND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 68W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NE VENEZUELA FROM 65W TO OVER TRINIDAD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA SW INTO THE REGION TO NEAR 26N74W. AT 06/0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N72W THROUGH A WEAK 1012 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N74W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 31N70W ALONG 26N76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT LAUDERDALE. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W. AN UPPER LOW IS N THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N65W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N53W WITH A SECOND UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 25N30W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH IN BETWEEN. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH WSW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N35W PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. $$ WALLACE