000 AXNT20 KNHC 060504 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WITH LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION FROM 13N-18N. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N MOVING W 5-10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXACT WAVE POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER PUERTO RICO TO 21N BETWEEN 65W-68W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OVER S MEXICO WITH BROAD WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN AND S MEXICO INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N FROM 88W-95W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 12N32W 10N41W 11N56W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N FROM 21W-25W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 3N FROM 38W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 28W-39W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N42W TO 11N50W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GIVING THE E GULF NE TO E UPPER FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 22N88W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER HIGH ENHANCING ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N86W...THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 81W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-16N E OF 65W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. AFTERNOON HEAT INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA HAVE MOVED OFF THE SW COAST OF HAITI TO JAMAICA COVERING THE AREA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA MOVING OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO CENTRAL PANAMA. IN ADDITION THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 12N FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA INTO THE REGION TO NEAR 25N70W. A WEAKENING 1014 MB IS TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 32N72W EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH S TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N76W TO 30N71W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N53W WITH A SECOND UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 23N29W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH IN BETWEEN. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N35W PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. $$ WALLACE