000 AXNT20 KNHC 050605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE WELL DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MOST PRONOUNCED ROTATION IS NOW PUSHING JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS ROTATION THOUGH. THE MORE PERSISTENT SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WEAK WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OF THE LARGER WAVES TO IT'S E AND W. STABLE AIR AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SURROUND THIS FEATURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE AXIS S OF 12N ARE MORE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS LARGE-SCALE WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY EASILY SEEN WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V SHAPE NOTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL WITH THIS WAVE...THE FEATURE HAS GAINED MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS IT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N59W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N WITHIN 250NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SINCE THE WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FROM 13N-22N W OF 79W. A RECENT FLARE UP OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE GUANACASTE REGION OF COSTA RICA. THE NRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH THE CURRENT PSN BASED MOSTLY ON A MODEST WWD SURGE OF MOISTURE NOTED ON THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT. SOME OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ROTATING MORE NW AROUND THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVERALL MINIMAL. ...THE ITCZ... 16N15W 11N26W 10N40W 16N56W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION DISCUSSED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 11N-14N E OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM N/150NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 46W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN INTERIOR MEXICO NOW NEAR 25N104W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER WAS OVER SOUTH TEXAS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN MEXICO FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ORIGINALLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE EAST WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N96W 25N92W 27N82W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 28N71W TO 27N88W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SOUTHWARD OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR. OTHER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 11N WEST OF 82W...INCLUDING LAND AREASNORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN BELIZE...AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE AREA...TO THE WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N73W 15N69W 15N60W ALONG THE TROUGH. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACHES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND BEYOND 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N57W TO 20N60W TO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N62W 21N58W 27N55W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N32W TO 20N40W TO 15N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 28N15W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 59W TROPICAL WAVE. $$ MT