000 AXNT20 KNHC 041104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 15 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE. ITCZ WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 25N MOVING 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING ONE CELL OF STRONG PRECIPITATION AT THE EASTERN END OF HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W FROM THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED. ...THE ITCZ... 13N17W 12N25W 9N36W 9N41W 10N53W 10N57W 9N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERNMOST TIP OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF 29N85W 25N95W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TAKING UP MUCH MORE SPACE THAN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE-TO-SOUTH TEXAS TROUGH...IS ALONG THE LINE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO 23N88W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE EARLIER YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STILL IS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM CUBA SOUTHWARD TO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 80W... INCLUDING ONE CELL OF STRONG PRECIPITATION AT THE EASTERN END OF HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...THE 80W TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY...THE ITCZ...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE GULF OF URABA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE SOUTH OF 11N TO PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ANCHORED FIRMLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH A BASE NEAR 13N62W. SURFACE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW EXISTS EAST OF 75W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN GENERAL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 31N56W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N58W TO 18N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AND TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...SOUTH OF A 33N70W 32N78W 32N85W STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N44W TO 22N45W. BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 26N19W...FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE PORTUGAL COAST TO THE MOROCCO COAST NEAR 28N/29N. $$ MT