000 AXNT20 KNHC 031114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 14N34W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION REALLY SEEMS TO BE RELATED ONLY TO THE ITCZ AND NOT THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...AND ONE PRECIPITATION CELL NEAR 21N47W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...AROUND A 16N67W ANTICYCLONE. THE BAHAMAS-TO-STRAITS OF FLORIDA PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. ONE PRECIPITATION CELL REMAINS NEAR 25N81W IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. RAWINSONDE DATA FROM THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS SHOW THAT THIS WAVE PASSED JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALREADY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 77W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 23.5N80W JUST OFF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE PRECIPITATION CELL REMAINS NEAR 25N81W IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ... 14N17W 12N26W 11N33W 11N48W TO TRINIDAD NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS-TO-LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 32N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AROUND THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE WEST OF 76W. THE 85W/86W TROPICAL WAVE IS SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BAHAMAS/STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 74W DUE TO A 16N67W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...STAYING SOUTH OF 16N...AND APPROACHING THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 16N67W ANTICYCLONE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 32N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THE TROUGH THAT WAS CONNECTED TO THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE SEPARATE NOW...AND IT RUNS FROM EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ONE PRECIPITATION CELL REMAINS NEAR 25N81W IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 58W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A 32N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N58W AND 16N58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A 31N16W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N28W TO 27N37W. A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS TO THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 16N18W TO 12N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N36W THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N62W 27N76W NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. $$ MT