000 AXNT20 KNHC 020611 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING ITS LAST FLIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ANY LAND OR SEA AREAS ALONG ITS PATH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WAVE JUST PASSED THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 18N39W TO 18N42W TO 10N42W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH THIS WAVE. ONE TROPICAL WAVE JUST CROSSED 70W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 21N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 13N16W 12N23W 11N28W 9N39W 8N44W 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE U.S.A. NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 90W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 28N85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N79W... ACROSS FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N92W THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. A SURFACE RIDGE POKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W...NORTHWESTWARD TO 27N94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE SMALLER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 70W. ONE TROPICAL WAVE JUST CROSSED 70W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 21N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES EITHER TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 81W ARE RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 7N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND 75W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N73W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29N79W BEYOND 31N70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N53W. A BIG RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A 33N27W NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE 31N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N58W TO 25N67W. $$ MT