000 AXNT20 KNHC 271048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 27W-34W WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ROTATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 45W/46W WITH WEAK 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 40W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 44W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 22N MOVING W 20-25 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 72W-81W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR WITH ONLY A SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 72W-81W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 10N21W 12N30W 11N38W 12N44W 9N49W 9N62W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AWAY FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-11N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 18W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 35W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 23N95W DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS FEEDING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER HIGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS W OF 90W WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N W OF 95W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIP FROM THE E US TOWARD THE N GULF COAST GIVING THE NE GULF COAST ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF REMAIN S OF 25N FROM 80W-86W. CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N FROM 81W-86W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W CREATING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW EXTENDING FROM 17N73W TO 12N82W. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 73N. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA N OF PANAMA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 78W TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIP FROM THE E US TOWARD THE N GULF COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 77W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTEND THROUGH 32N58W SW TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N73W TO BEYOND 32N71W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 69W-74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 27N FROM 70W-76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N63W TO 32N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 24N63W TO 30N55W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. $$ WALLACE