000 AXNT20 KNHC 270507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 27W-34W WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ROTATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 16N42W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N45W TO 5N45W MOVING W 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 41W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 44W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 22N MOVING W 20-25 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 70W-80W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 71W-73W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 14N28W 11N33W 12N42W 9N48W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N E OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 200 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 7N W OF 8W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 32W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 23N95W DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS FEEDING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER HIGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 89W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF ARE BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING S OF 27N FROM 80W-84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 76W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 78W TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W CREATING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW EXTENDING FROM 15N73W TO 12N82W. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 72W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 78W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTEND THROUGH 32N58W SW TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N58W TO 26N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 54W-60W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. $$ WALLACE