000
AXNT20 KNHC 251036
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW 
AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING 
THE AREA FROM 34W-45W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N FROM 40W-43W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. 
BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE 
AREA FROM 50W-65W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED  
SHOWERS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 57W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. 

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 
KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE 
AREA FROM 80W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-21N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N24W 8N35W 10N52W 9N63W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
10N FROM 14W-17W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 11N FROM 27W-31W. SCATTERED 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N E OF 
35W TO TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS OVER THE E US AND THE FAR W ATLC 
TO THE N GULF COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING S OVER 
TEXAS. REMNANT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST FROM NE MEXICO N OF 24N TO THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W 
CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS ENHANCING 
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N INTO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W-96W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W DOMINATING 
THE AREA W OF 71W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE E GULF 
OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA 
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA 
BETWEEN 76W-83W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM OVER VENEZUELA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST 
TO THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS 
W CUBA/FLORIDA STRAITS NE TO 32N69W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 65W 
GIVING THE AREA SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 62W. LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 
46W-60W AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 
50W-56W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND 
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH 
THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE 
REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA. 

$$
WALLACE