000 AXNT20 KNHC 242339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED REGION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 30W-42W. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. A BROAD INVERTED V SHAPE REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE SURROUNDING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 48W-55W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 50W-56W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-85W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W/96W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 93W-97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N40W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 18W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 28N91W 28N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 87W-93W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 81W-88W. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 79W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N99W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND S TEXAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 95W-100W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. EXPECT AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURROUNDING LAND MASSES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS SLACKENED THUS TRADEWINDS HAVE LIGHTENED. 15-20 KT WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W. ELSEWHERE ...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 84W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N82W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 77W MOSTLY DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS ALONG 31N74W 25N79W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 79W-82W. ONE DOMINATE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N44N PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 20N38W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA