000
AXNT20 KNHC 222350
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W S OF 18N 
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH 
CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A BROAD AREA.  A 1010 MB LOW IS 
EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N27W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 22W-28W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 20N 
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS 
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-69W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W S OF 21N 
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V 
SIGNATURE IS NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
16N-20N BETWEEN 81W-85W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 81W-83W.     

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 8N40W 8N50W 11N60W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 22W-28W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-45W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 30N97W.  A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 29N80W 30N90W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO BETWEEN 87W-100W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 
80W-83W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA 
FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS CENTERED OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N95W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO PERSIST OVER 
THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE ERN GULF...FLORIDA...CUBA...AND 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING 
CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA HAS SLACKENED THUS TRADEWINDS HAVE LIGHTENED.  15-20 KT 
WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA HOWEVER.  PATCHES OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS BETWEEN 80W-88W.  ELSEWHERE... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA 
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 74W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N79W.  EXPECT 
CONTINUED CONVECTION FROM THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 29N76W 29N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT FROM 
24N-29N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  ONE DOMINATE 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N41N PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N65W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS CENTER IS 
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N 
BETWEEN 60W-67W...AND FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 58W-61W.  FURTHER 
S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 
22N68W.  A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W. 

$$
FORMOSA