000 AXNT20 KNHC 161059 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N37W 11N40W 3N42W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS WAVE. LOW CLOUDS IN THE EARLIEST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS WAVE. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N63W 14N67W INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 7N69W. THIS WAVE WAS MOVED COMPARATIVELY QUITE A BIT BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD-TO- SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH OF THE STRATIFORM CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE CLOUD MOVEMENTS SUGGEST TO ME THAT THIS WAVE MUST BE WEST OF 60W...AND NOT STILL EAST OF 60W WHERE WE HAD BEEN LOCATING IT. I MOVED THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN LONGITUDE BECAUSE OF THE STRATIFORM CLOUD FIELD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS NOT EXACTLY THAT EASY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS WAVE BECAUSE OF ALL THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT ARE VEERING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/95W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...PASSING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W MOSTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N17W 9N30W 9N37W 7N43W TO 5N56W IN NORTHERN SURINAME. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO 21N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA BEYOND 32N ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. WARMING CLOUD TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OFF THE TEXAS COAST...AND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE MEXICO EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WITH THE 93W/95W TROPICAL WAVE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SWEPT INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...AS THE TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE WELL-DEFINED AND CONTINUED TO GROW TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FROM ITS HUMBLE BEGINNINGS ONLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 3 DAYS AGO. THE 20N63W 14N67W 7N69W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EAST OF 20N68W 16N72W 11N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN HAITI AND WESTERN CUBA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND IN WESTERN PANAMA...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N58W TO 26N66W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W TO 24N29W 18N36W TO 10N47W. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR 13N18W JUST OFF THE AFRICA COAST. $$ MT