000 AXNT20 KNHC 160603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N36W 12N39W 3N41W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ALL THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO AND/OR ENHANCED BY THE 32W/33W TROPICAL WAVE. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 19N58W 15N64W...INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 7N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N53W 15N60W TO 11N64W. SHOWERS IN VENEZUELA IN AN AREA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/93W SOUTH OF 20N...PASSING THROUGH MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 13N TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF THIS PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N20W 10N30W 10N38W 8N42W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W...WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N25W 8N30W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N42W 6N45W 6N47W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N47W 5N50W 5N53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS TO 23N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA BEYOND 32N ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W IN ADVANCE OF THE TEXAS-TO-WESTERN GULF TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W/93W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SWEPT INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...AS THE TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE WELL-DEFINED AND CONTINUED TO GROW TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FROM ITS HUMBLE BEGINNINGS ONLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 3 DAYS AGO. THE 19N58W 15N64W 7N68W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EAST OF 20N67W 11N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND WESTERN CUBA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN PANAMA AND POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHERN COSTA RICA IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N58W TO 24N65W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W TO 24N29W 18N36W TO 10N47W. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR 13N18W JUST OFF THE AFRICA COAST. $$ MT