000 AXNT20 KNHC 141110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...WITH ONE CYCLONIC CENTER POSSIBLY NEAR 13N23W AND ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLY NEAR 15N27W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 21N47W 13N52W TO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 3N54W MOVING WEST 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N54W 15N47W 22N45W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA TO 9N79W IN PANAMA. IT IS MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST IN ORDER TO FIT THE SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BETTER. ITS CURRENT POSITION NOW IS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N78W 11N80W 12N82W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM BELIZE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W TO 6N38W 7N50W... INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. A RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS...LEADING TO A SMALL SCALE RIDGE ACROSS LOUISIANA... AND EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N93W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF MORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 86W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 79W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN GEORGIA. THE OTHER PRECIPITATION AROUND CUBA FROM 8 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS POSITION FITS THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BETTER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N78W 11N80W 12N82W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM BELIZE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA TO 9N79W IN PANAMA. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT ORGANIZED IN ANY ONE DIRECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DOES NOT LEAD TO MUCH EXCEPT BROAD WESTERLY FLOW EAST OF 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N60W AND MAY IMPACT THE CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS. COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF MORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 86W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N52W 22N53W TO 17N57W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER WAS NEAR 23N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 36W...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 29N52W 17N57W TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N21W TO 28N22W 24N27W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. $$ MT