000 AXNT20 KNHC 132353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL NEAR THE AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST CONVECTION ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 16W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 23N42W 14N48W 3N51W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED INVERTED V-SHAPE LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LITTLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THEREFORE THE CURRENT POSITION FOLLOWS CONTINUITY. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 87W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 85-88W...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 6N40W 10N50W 6N60W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 25W-40W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N91W PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N81W 28N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER NORTH... A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 32N81W 31N85W 32N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N100W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF STATES...FLORIDA... AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO THE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 25-30 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-84W. SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA ...AS NOTED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N82W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 76W-78W. A DOMINATE 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N34W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA