000 AXNT20 KNHC 131021 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 19N41W TO 6N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 41W-44W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOSTLY S OF 13N. ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N25W 8N44W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 13N W OF 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 49W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 15W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SE TO W CUBA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 87W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF COAST N OF 26N E OF 89W. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N91W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST ACTIVE AREA IS ONCE AGAIN THE W CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE DRY STABLE NEAR THE SURFACE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TO OVER S GEORGIA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 75W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN TROUGH-RIDGE- TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N48W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 65W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA/CUBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. $$ WALLACE