000 AXNT20 KNHC 130520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 39W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOSTLY S OF 14N. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 80W-85W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N27W 8N38W 3N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SE TO W CUBA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH DIPS TO OVER NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/ALABAMA BORDER TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST ACTIVE AREA IS ONCE AGAIN THE W CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 77W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W. DRY STABLE NEAR THE SURFACE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TO OVER S GEORGIA. A SURFACE TROUGH DIPS TO OVER NE FLORIDA GIVING THE AREA N OF 30N WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN TROUGH-RIDGE- TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF CUBA TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 76W-80W. $$ WALLACE