000 AXNT20 KNHC 121028 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 34W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOSTLY S OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N FROM 61W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS A SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOT OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER/CONVECTION IS NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 88W IS NOW IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N26W 11N38W 6N49W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 49W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N92W EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BORDER DRAWING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 19N-23N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE E US TO THE N GULF COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH DIPPING TO OVER NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST E OF MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N88W. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ONCE AGAIN THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...TROPICAL WAVES...AND A NEAR PERSISTENT 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W INDUCING AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER HONDURAS. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO E CUBA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN FEATURES...SUCH AS A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 27N54W AND AN UPPER RIDGE-TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A SERIES OF HIGH N OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N57W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF CUBA W OF 78W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. $$ WALLACE