000 AXNT20 KNHC 111748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CLEARING IS NOTED BEYOND 200 NM EAST OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N-17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N W OF 52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 68W-71W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 6.5N40W 7.5N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-40W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS WEST OF 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N85W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF CLEAR TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N E OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...A TROPICAL WAVE...A MID LEVEL LOW OVER W HONDURAS...AND A NEAR PERSISTENT 1009 MB LOW NEAR PANAMA. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 75W WHILE A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND A THIRD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W INDUCING AN UPPER LOW NEAR HISPANIOLA. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ELONGATED UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W CONTINUING SW AS A RIDGE TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC. $$ LL