000 AXNT20 KNHC 110530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. SHALLOW MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST TO THE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N50W 10N53W 8N57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N27W 7N43W 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS INDUCING A NARROW WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GULF E OF 92W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 24N FROM 83W-87W...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED OVER CUBA MOVING NW. CARIBBEAN SEA... ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...TROPICAL WAVE...AND A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NICARAGUA. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W 13N81W 19N84W 20N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND A THIRD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED OVER HAITI AND CUBA HAVE MOVED WSW AND ARE DISSIPATING. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ELONGATED UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE E OF THE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N40W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND JACKSONVILLE. $$ WALLACE