000 AXNT20 KNHC 100448 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED AT 10/0000 UTC ALONG 20W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 10N. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA THUS MASKING ITS IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 70W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION NOT IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N28W 5N43W 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N49W TO 8N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES DIPPING S INTO THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF E OF 91W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N76W TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N/18N. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER W CUBA IS MOVING WITHIN 90 NM OFFSHORE FROM 78W-84W WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF 17N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 86W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ELONGATED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERING THE E GULF AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 27N69W TO 33N51W PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1034 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N40W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 77W. $$ WALLACE