000 AXNT20 KNHC 091736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO OTHER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THE WAVE ARE OUTSIDE THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N58W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES EASTERN HISPANIOLA WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 20N...CUTTING ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS CENTER IS PART OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 90W. IT REALLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 11N15W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 7N23W 4N38W TO 4N52W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W...FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N90W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS TROUGH. THE PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 90W IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF 90W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EAST ALONG 68W/69W...AND THE OTHER ONE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTER PART OF THE AREA ALONG 85W/86W. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES EASTERN HISPANIOLA WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS CENTER IS PART OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 90W. IT REALLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE 85W/86W WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A. SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N66W... AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO 33N73W AND 34N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N39W TO 29N51W 29N57W 29N74W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THIS RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N45W... NORTHWESTWARD TO 22N56W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N19W TO 23N24W TO 15N31W AND 9N39W. $$ MT