000
AXNT20 KNHC 060535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 17N22W TO 4N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
A LARGER SCALE INVERTED V-TYPE STRUCTURE IS APPARENT FURTHER TO 
THE NE...REACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MINIMAL SHOWER 
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THAT IS GENERATING SOME 
CLOUDINESS OVER THESE ISLANDS.

A 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 11N51W OR ABOUT 620 NM E OF 
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WEAK 
LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MINIMAL TSTM ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED 
IN A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 15N49W 6N51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS 
ALONG 64W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N38W 7N50W 10N61W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRES AREA LOCATED OVER CENTRAL 
FLORIDA NEAR ORLANDO. TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA IS 
SLOWLY DECREASING. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE 
EASTERN GULF TO 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO 
TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N89W TO THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE MEXICO GUATEMALA BORDER 
IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF BAY OF CAMPECHE.
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT 
FOR DISSIPATING CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND HAITI. THE UPPER 
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE MOIST FURTHER W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW 
SPINNING OVER MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. DECREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS N OF 27N W OF 74W, A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 30N60W. FARTHER E THERE 
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH RIDGING STILL 
DOMINATING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE AZORES HIGH WITH 1030 
MB CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 37N25W. A SERIES OF UPPER HIGHS ARE 
PROVIDING A VERY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC 
WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE REGION.

$$
DGS