000
AXNT20 KNHC 050524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N45W...OR ABOUT 1000 NM 
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 45W-46W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20N58W 6N58W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 55W 
AND 59W. 

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W TO 6N30W 10N44W 9N50W 11N57W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW LOUISIANA. 
STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1014 MB LOW PRES JUST SE OF TAMPA 
BAY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 25N83W TO 26N86W. 
   
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE
DRIFTING SLOWLY WWD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE CIRCULATING AROUND THE 
LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. ANOTHER 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE E TIP OF 
CUBA AND HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST 
DIRECTION. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W 28N72W 29N80W TO 1014 MB 
LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE JUST N OF THE 
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. MID/UPPER LEVEL 
OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLC TO 25N67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE ATLC FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 30W AND 
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N59W TO AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N45W TO 31N42W. MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 31N26W TO 24N37W.

$$
DGS