000 AXNT20 KNHC 012250 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 13N36W TO 4N39W DRIFTING W. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER HIGH ENHANCING CONVECTION NOT NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-21N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N21W 8N36W 7N50W 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA...FROM 27W-35W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 55W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N89W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MOST OF THE SE US WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF EXTEND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO S TEXAS. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR SE GULF INTO THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED INT HE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH A SEA BREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI... JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N81W BUT IS ONLY GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOME ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MIAMI WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N78W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. THIS UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO BEYOND 32N71W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE SE US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 20N FROM 54W-70W WITH A PORTION DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N61W TO 31N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N60W TO 26N56W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW AFRICA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N45W. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. $$ WALLACE