000 AXNT20 KNHC 300621 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N29W 9N32W 3N32W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB CONFIRM THE WAVE OFF THE SURFACE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 20N63W TO 14N65W AND THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 91W/93W SOUTH OF 22N...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY COVERED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AT 14N NORTHWARD 20N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA MAY BE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST...AND SOME MAY BE AIDED BY TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 9N28W TO 8N40W TO 8N50W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM 8N30W 6N40W 2N50W TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 11N51W IS SENDING CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W SHOOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N111W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W ARE MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/ TROUGH GOING TOWARD THE 20N111W CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR THE SURFACE FORECASTS BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING PART OF A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA BY 72 HOURS. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. THE 500 MB PATTERN SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH A TROUGH ENTERING THE PICTURE FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS IN FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE ALONG 82W STARTS OUT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND IT RETURNS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING REGIMES OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 20N63W TO 14N65W AND THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N74W 9N77W 7N79W...IN THE AREA TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN PANAMA. THE ITCZ FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN REACHES 9N77W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PRESENT IN THAT PART OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N68W 31N78W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N63W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 27N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION GOES FROM 25N TO 28N BEFORE 54W AND 56W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N44W AND 23N48W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 31N41W 23N48W TROUGH. $$ MT