000 AXNT20 KNHC 292346 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007 CORRECTED SATELLITE IMAGERY TIME TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 14N29W 3N32W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED AHEAD EARLIER BASED ON ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS IN THE 600-800 MB RANGE CONFIRM THIS TURNING SHOWING THE PRESENCE OF THE WAVE AXIS OFF THE SFC. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE ERN CARIB ALONG 63W/64W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE STRUCTURE IN ITS CLOUD FIELD. EVEN IN THE SURROUNDING STABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT...THIS WEAK WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 90W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE...ARE MOVING NWD WITH THE UPPER FLOW FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 88W-91W. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER S FLORIDA BROKE OFF FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF THIS WAVE A FEW DAYS AGO. FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N24W 9N40W 7N50W 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 43W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CENTERED NEAR 21N95W. EXTENSIVE SLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIB IS DRIVING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE GULF. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN COASTAL WATERS AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED OVER S FLA AND EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG 81W N OF 23N. THIS FEATURE BROKE OFF FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG 90W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE REGION OVER THE BAHAMAS SHUNTED BY STRONG MID-UPPER WLY FLOW. WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE MID-GULF NEAR 28N89W PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...NWP MODELS DRIFT THE BROAD LOW OVER S FLA TO THE NNE INTO THE WRN ATLC AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS OF LITTLE CONCERN. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE W GULF NEAR THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIB ANCHORED BY A HIGH CENTER NEAR 19N80W. NLY UPPER FLOW E OF THE HIGH IS PROVIDING A STABLE AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONE ELEMENT INHIBITING FAIR WEATHER IS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W/64W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N E OF 68W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE EXTREME SW CARIB...PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND HONDURAS IN A DIFFLUENT ZONE S OF THE UPPER HIGH AND NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS. TRADES HAVE RELAXED SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE AND EXPAND EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE SW ATLC ROUGHLY W OF 70W FROM 23N-30N. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER S FLORIDA AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE S OF AN UPPER JET. THIS UPPER JET IS STRETCHING DEBRIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EWD TO ABOUT 50W N OF 23N. A PAIR OF WEAK SFC TROUGHS...ALONG 57W FROM 24N-29N AND ALONG 50W FROM 26N-30N...ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FARTHER E...THE THEME IS EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGING STRETCHING W FROM AFRICA ALONG 24N TO ABOUT 30W WITH RIDGING CONTINUING SW FROM THERE TO ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 15N45W. DIFFLUENCE AT THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM A NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ REGION...DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED UNDER A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SFC RIDGE ALONG 31N/32N CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MODERATE ELY FLOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL BELT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE CONTINENT AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WHERE THERE IS SLIGHT TIGHTENING IN THE GRADIENT DUE TO LOWER PRES OVER FLORIDA. $$ CANGIALOSI