000
AXNT20 KNHC 281103
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W S OF 20N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA E OF A MID ATLC UPPER 
TROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 9N WITHIN 180 NM E OF 
THE WAVE. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W S OF 27N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS IN DIFFLUENT AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE. THE 
UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS STILL 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE. EAST OF THE WAVE... 
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CRESTING ALONG 76W WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG 80W FROM 20N TO 27N.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W S OF 23N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE 
IS MOVING W NEARLY IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
21N92W WITH ITS UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING NE TO 24N82W. 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N14W 7N35W 10N54W 9N62W. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND 
CONVECTION ARE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY S OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 34W BECOMING 
WIDELY SCATTERED BETWEEN 43W AND 48W WHERE CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46/47W DESCRIBED ABOVE.   
 
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER CYCLONES ARE CENTERED NEAR 28N84W AND 21N92W. RIDGING FROM 
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS DOMINATES THE NW GULF AND UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDS E FROM MEXICO INTO THE SW PORTION. AS A RESULT...NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE GULF W OF 90W...AND ELY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA 
E OF 90W.
    
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA TO A CREST NEAR 17N83W. AS A RESULT 
STRONG SW UPPER FLOW W OF 75W AND WLY FLOW E OF 75W. ABUNDANT
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED W OF 80W AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 
70W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 15N E OF 80W AND OVER THE 
ENTIRE AREA E OF 70W. FAST MOVING TRADE WIND CUMULUS IS NOTED 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  
                  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 67W. BETWEEN 
65W AND 45W AN UPPER TROUGH IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A WELL 
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 25N48W. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE 
TROUGH...WITHIN 440 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N44W 11N63W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE ATLC ALONG 31N13W TO 24N24W...AND 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OF AFRICA ALONG 17N TO 18N21W. BERMUDA 
HIGH DOMINATES THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUBTROPICS E OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$
MUNDELL