000 AXNT20 KNHC 251054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...NOT QUITE REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS YET...BUT SET TO REACH THEM DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE HANGING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. THIS AREA ALSO IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N73W TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SENEGAL NEAR 14N15W TO 8N26W 7N30W 6N37W 6N48W 9N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE 9N21W 7N24W 5N27W... FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W ALONG THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 96W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED ITSELF IN A BAND IN THE FLOW AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 27N...INCLUDING OVER MEXICO...FROM A 98W RIDGE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W UNDER THE RIDGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SPILLING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH STARTS OUT FROM A 27N73W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND REACHES 14N80W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE HANGING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. AN ISOLATED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N65W. THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N44W TO 15N61W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HUG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COSTA RICA BORDER WITH NICARAGUA...IN AN AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE 14N80W TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 35N40W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N44W TO 15N61W...IN THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N73W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 31N54W 25N60W 20N67W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CENTERED NEAR 21N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE 21N60W CENTER BEYOND 32N55W. A WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N75W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 14N EAST OF 60W. $$ MT