000
AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N24W 9N27W 3N28W
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE 17N55W 11N58W 5N58W IN GUYANA.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 15 KT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 13N72W. SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT AROUND
25/0300 UTC. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DUE TO
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. 

...THE ITCZ...
12N17W 8N25W 8N28W 6N40W 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N52W 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 14W 
AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND 
LOUISIANA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 85W
AND 97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED ITSELF IN
A BAND IN THE FLOW AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM WESTERN 
LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 27N...INCLUDING
OVER MEXICO...FROM A 98W RIDGE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 17N98W WEST OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANOTHER SUCH AREA GOES FROM 17N
TO 18N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N
IN MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SPILLING INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
MOVES TOWARD THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH 
STARTS OUT FROM A 27N72W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER...CROSSES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND REACHES 15N78W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING 
AT 25/0300 UTC...AND NOW ARE DISSIPATING IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND 
FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N72W ATLANTIC 
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...
AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CENTERED NEAR 21N60W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE 21N60W CENTER BEYOND 32N57W.
A WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N75W.
AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
A 27N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND 33N39W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 14N EAST OF 60W.

$$
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