000 AXNT20 KNHC 241039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR 12N19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 20W-28W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 18W-20W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 46W-49W. A SIMILAR CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS VOID OF A CLEAR SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. DUE TO LACK OF SFC OBS IN THE VICINITY...POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 7N30W 5N40W 6N50W 8N60W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-37W. A SIMILAR CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 42W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CONVECTION DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AROUND A NOW DISSIPATED SFC HIGH HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...HOWEVER REMNANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 22N-25N WEST OF 97W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE NW GULF BY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL UNDER DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE SW GULF AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... NWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 14N87W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...S OF 10S BETWEEN 76W-79W...FROM A SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1017MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 29N74W. CONVERGENCE BETWEEN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS TRIGGERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 68W-70W AND FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THIS LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 54W-62W N OF 26N. THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A PAIR OF 1028 MB SFC HIGHS ARE OVER THE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 38N35W AND 33N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EAST OF 50W. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CUBA NE ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLC. $$ WADDINGTON