000 AXNT20 KNHC 232355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR 12N17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 13W-20W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. A DUST PLUME IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 30W-47W MOVING W WITH THE WAVE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 47W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 64W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N94W TO THE E PACIFIC MOVING W 15-20 KT. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE E PACIFIC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N30W 5N40W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 20W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N89W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW HAS PRODUCED HOWEVER... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 96W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF NE MEXICO AND TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO S MEXICO. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 76W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT THE ONSET OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK REMNANT 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N75W. DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E OF THE LOW IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N35W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 20N52W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA FROM 5N-25N E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA