000 AXNT20 KNHC 221742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING MAINLY IN NORTHERN PORTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W S OF 13N BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA SHOWING WAVE PASSING NEAR 21/06Z IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING N OF 16N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N22W 8N41W 9N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N99W NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS CREATING SUBSIDENT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS RELATIVELY FLAT AND AS A RESULT WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. SHOWERS ARE FEW AND VERY LIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N77W TO WESTERN CUBA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS EVIDENT LAST EVENING...BUT IT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. ALL THAT REMAINS IS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE LOW CLOUD FEATURES. QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 70W. WINDS HAVE DECREASED FROM AROUND 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST YESTERDAY. THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER 10 FT. SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF BERMUDA ALONG 30N TO A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST... WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STATIONARY FRONT AND NEARBY LOW HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS. ALSO...THE CLOUD LINES NEAR THE LOW HAVE BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED WHILE WINDS REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT AROUND THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN N OF 15N. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 11N38W IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES TO 27N41W TO 24N62W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT IS PRODUCING QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. $$ MUNDELL