000 AXNT20 KNHC 172328 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 40W-43W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 46W-49W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY AIRMASS WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 80W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 6N30W 7N42W 7N50W AND INTO GUYANA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-49W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-25W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 16W. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE INLAND OVER AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BOARDER SPREADING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. A BROAD LINE OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NE THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. THIS CONVECTION IS A RESULT OF SPEED CONFLUENCE AROUND A SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC. THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ALOFT...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N90W IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 62W. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY MOISTURE IN THE REGION IS CONFINED TO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1021MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER IN THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND N OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW NEAR 39N63W ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N75W. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 67W-72W. A 1024MB SFC HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 27N47W IS KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N10W 28N16W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALOFT...DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 15N50W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE S CENTRAL ATLC. S FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND THIS UPPER HIGH IS ADVECTING THE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IS MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE E ATLC. $$ WADDINGTON