000 AXNT20 KNHC 171741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 38W-49W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY AIRMASS WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE NOTED. CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY AIRMASS. A LINE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM PANAMA TO EASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N33W 8N46W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-40W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 46W-60W. THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE WITH A VERY THIN LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 5N20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 6N11W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS DRIFTING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON COMPOSITE RADAR E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND OVER KEY WEST AND SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 94W-99W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W...THUS THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 20N HAS MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY E OF 83W WITH 20 KT TRADEWINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N66W. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 83W. EXPECT CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IN CLUSTERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 66W-72W. A 1023 MB HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N57W MOVING E. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N12W 27N21W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N50W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N47W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA