000 AXNT20 KNHC 171030 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W TO 20N85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N33W 8N46W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-40W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 46W-60W. THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE WITH A VERY THIN LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 5N20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 6N11W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SPREADING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA/ MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE GULF W OF 85W LEAVING MUCH OF THE GULF DRY AGAIN TONIGHT. A SMALL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N87W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS DRIFTING NW. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER W CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS W OF 80W. AN UPPER RIDGE NOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NE ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N63W TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 15N66W TO 12N76W. THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER W TO NEAR 83W COUPLED WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT DOMINATE THE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN GIVING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 84W. THIS AREA IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DIPS S INTO THE REGION N OF 26N W OF 70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N73W SW TO A 1016 MB LOW JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W CONTINUING TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N79W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N60W GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 43N76W NE TO 30N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N61W TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N44W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC CONTINUES TO PUSH S TO 22N E OF 33W WITH AN ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N13W JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N25W. THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF 65W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY UPPER AIR WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E OF 70W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 27N55W AND A WEAKENING 1023 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N34W THUS KEEPING MOST OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE