000 AXNT20 KNHC 161808 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 37W-44W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS MASKING ANY LOW LEVEL SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 7N40W 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 27W-35W...FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 37W-44W...AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 44W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH IS DRIFTING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON COMPOSITE RADAR E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA ...THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA MOSTLY S OF 26N. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF...N OF 26N AND E OF 90W...ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE E AT 10 KT WITH FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...W OF 90W... ARE FROM THE SE AT 10 KT WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM 28N-35N BETWEEN 94W-100W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W...THUS THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N HAS MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA SEE ABOVE. THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS AN AREA OF TROPICAL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 82W-87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N62W. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 70W. EXPECT THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC MOVING NE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 70W-79W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 66W-70W. NASSAU AND FREEPORT HAVE EACH REPORTED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 1024 MB HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N49W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W 28N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N48W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ERN ATLANTIC NEAR 17N31W. $$ FORMOSA