000 AXNT20 KNHC 161036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W. EASTERN MOST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WESTERN MOST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N26W 7N41W 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 40W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 22W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE GULF W OF 85W LEAVING MUCH OF THE GULF DRY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM OVER CUBA TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO N OF 18N FROM 75W-85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 80W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NE ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 74W. THIS AREA IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BROUGHT IN BY THE MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 60W TO OVER THE E US. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW ATLC GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 150/180 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N77W NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 28N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AFRICA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N43W THEN SW TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS IS A RATHER BENIGN FEATURE AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 70W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N46W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N23W TO 28N38W BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE BROAD HIGH IS KEEPING MOST OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE